Update to the Lutey Recession Indicator
The indicator is recommended to be out of the market until October 28, 2026. This follows intermittent inversion from April 2025 to June 2025.
The indicator recommended re-entry into the market in April 2025, which lines up with the v-shaped recovery, however it recommended to be out starting in June 2025 as the market climbed higher. Given the length of the prolonged inversion it recommends staying out until October 2026.
Between now and October 2026 monitor for new periods of interest rate inversion and continue to add time for the length of the inversion + any new death cross signals that occur. Once the inversion is done and the death cross is done we are good to re-enter the market. the indicator recommends monitoring for a new death cross, and if no new death cross occurs, re-enter the market in late August 2027.
Matt
