Follow key macro insights to catch the market sell off

Learn when the market is likely to sell off before it does

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Follow the key macro market insights that lead to a recession

Switch to a defensive phase when the lutey recession indicator ticks active - recommended allocation is 60% equity 40% bonds. When the market recession is over - switch back to aggressive 80% equity 20% bonds. When the market signals a warning sign such as historical prolonged interest rate inversion - and a sector rotation leading to key investment growth strategies like 'Lutey Growth' - CAN SLIM overexpose to Financial and Utility Stocks while the SP500 is declining on volume in a weekly or daily uptrend - it's time to switch to a defensive position like 70% equity 30% bond and get ready for the trigger signal:

A 'death cross' on the 21 day / 200 day moving average of the daily SP500 yield curve. You can be confident in your decision to switch back to active by following either 1) the v-shaped recovery on bullish engulfing and up volume on the SP500 weekly or daily chart following a sell off from the 'death cross' or 2) a mechanical timed entry based on a simple algorithm or fomula based on counting the number of consecutive days of prior yield curve inversion leading to the start of the 'death cross' and adding it to the length of the 'death cross signal'

Follow the mechanical signal from the publication in real time for defensive portfolio action. Learn more about spotting the v-shape recovery

Learn more about when the market is ready to recover following the recession rule. Follow the mechanical signal from the publication in real time for defensive portfolio action.

Read about the 'Lutey Recession Indicator'

Read about the rules based objective mechanical entry and exit predating the U.S. Recession and Recovery

The Lutey Recession Rule (2025) shows how to accurately exit the market before the recession starts - time the lenght of the recovery period and re-enter the market with confidence. This risk-overlay is useful for equity exposure in U.S. stocks including the SP500.

See the U.S. recession start and end dates in the bottom right image following the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 'FRED'. And the real-time backtested start and stop dates of the recession periods through 2009.

Read about the 'Lutey Recession Indicator' from 2025

Invest in the timing of the defensive phase of the U.S. Stock Market

Follow the Lutey Recession Signal real-time updates based on the macro economic outlook and interest rate inversion updated signal with current state of the market and 'death cross' strategy.

Take me to the Lutey Recession Indicator

Follow the Lutey Rule.

This case study ran in the passing stocks of Lutey Growth - CAN SLIM with a monthly rebalance during the 2008-2009 recession shows that applying the Lutey Recession Rule historically improves the return while lowering the volatility. Both in the portfolio and the SP500.